Mitigating climate change in the Western Cape

In response to the national Mitigation Potential Analysis, the Western Cape Department of Environmental Affairs has developed scenarios to determine the mitigation potential within the province. The study also identifies the role of municipalities in emissions reductions.

Western Cape Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios for the Energy Sector Report (2015)

In 2014, the Western Cape Government Department of Environmental Affairs and Development Planning commissioned a Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios exercise for the energy sector. The study is an analysis of energy use and the associated emissions in the Province as well as a set of scenario models projecting future energy demand, based on various sets of variables. A set of mitigation measures (drawn from the national Mitigation Potential Analysis (2014)) were developed given the provincial context and which aimed at reducing emissions in the province.
The model allows emission projections to be made for two core climate mitigation scenarios:
1) All Possible Measures; and
2) All Possible Measures, with the addition of fuel switching from coal and liquid fuels to natural gas.

The study also identifies measures which the Western Cape Government and municipalities within the Western Cape can influence which will result in emission reductions.
The primary conclusion from this study is that if scenario 1 is applied, there is the potential to reduce emissions substantially from a rate of increase of 2.3% per annum under the Reference Case scenarios to an average annual increase in emissions of 1.1% over the period up to 2040. Further, should the province implement scenario 2 (all possible measures with fuel switching), there is an even greater opportunity to reduce the average annual increase in emissions to 0.9%. While it is shown that it is not feasible to avoid an increase in emissions associated with energy use in the Province, this is a substantial reduction and paramount to achieving the climate change objectives as set out in the Western Cape Climate Change Response Strategy.

For more information on this report, contact
Lize Jennings-Boom
Climate Change Directorate – WCG: Environmental Affairs and Development Planning
Lize.Jennings@westerncape.gov.za
Tel: 021 483 0769